Blog about climate change adaptation in Tanzania and life in general

Back in Morogoro

2010-05-25T02:19:00.000-07:00

A week ago I arrived again in Tanzania. I came to prepare a Stakeholder workshop of our research project (pictures). It was nice to come back to Tanzania and meet some old friends. In fact, here little has changed since last year. When I met Harry and Anja it was like a flashback: they are doing fieldwork for another project of ZALF research centre and they are struggling with similar things like I did last year: adaptation to local food, simple and isolated village life, intercultural understanding etc. Honestly, I was just happy that my data is already collected!

The big day was on Monday. For the workshop we invited farmers from the villages of my household survey and participants from science, NGO and government. The first presentation was from our colleague Jawoo Koo from IFPRI, who travelled all the way from Washington for this event (cheers, once more!). It was a genius moment when Jawoo explained emission scenarios and his work on climate change and crop models to the farmers. It was a clash of cultures in a very positive way. Communication was a challenge given the fact that farmers “only” speak Swahili, Kikaguru and Kiluguru but Aichi Kitalyi from the World Agroforestry Centre did a marvellous job in moderating the whole event both in English and Swahili and translating the most important messages.

After Jawoo’s talk one of the farmers asked, what those countries responsible for the emissions are doing in order to stop emissions and to help those who are likely to carry the burden of climate change. Good point. I guess our project could be a tiny contribution to this. Later we ranked in a group session potential farmers´ micro-level adaptation practices. As always it was not easy to come up with simple results from the complex world of rural livelihoods. However it was good to see that national and international scientists as well as people from the government and NGOs followed with interest how farmers explained and justified their priority setting.

In the end I was happy to hear some positive feedback on the workshop. It seems participants liked especially the fact we invited such a divers group of stakeholders. For me clearly the workshop was a good experience and it is great that it was made possible with all the support from people from ZALF and the other partners involved!

Responses to criticism of IPCC findings on yields in Africa by climate scientists

2010-02-28T06:43:00.000-08:00

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been criticised lately for - real or alleged - inaccuracies in his last report from 2007. This concerns mainly statements on the melting of Himalayan Glaciers and the percentage of the territory under sea level of the Netherlands. However another point has relevance for my research project: the amount of projected reduction of yields in Africa. The reknown weblog Realclimate from climate scientists responds to the criticism. In the case of yield reduction in Africa IPCC-standards have been met, allthuogh some of the references cited in the IPCC report are only grey literature and one thing remains clear anyway: more knowledge has to be gathered, whether the yields of rainfed agriculture in Africa are really likely to drop by up to 50 percent until 2020 and how to respond.

The statement of Realclimate in detail:

¨The IPCC Synthesis Report states: “By 2020, in some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50%.” This is properly referenced back to chapter 9.4 of WG2, which says: “In other countries, additional risks that could be exacerbated by climate change include greater erosion, deficiencies in yields from rain-fed agriculture of up to 50% during the 2000-2020 period, and reductions in crop growth period (Agoumi, 2003).” The Agoumi reference is correct and reported correctly. The Sunday Times, in an article by Jonathan Leake, labels this issue “Africagate” – the main criticism being that Agoumi (2003) is not a peer-reviewed study (see below for our comments on “gray” literature), but a report from the International Institute for Sustainable Development and the Climate Change Knowledge Network, funded by the US Agency for International Development. The report, written by Morroccan climate expert Professor Ali Agoumi, is a summary of technical studies and research conducted to inform Initial National Communications from three countries (Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and is a perfectly legitimate IPCC reference.

It is noteworthy that chapter 9.4 continues with “However, there is the possibility that adaptation could reduce these negative effects (Benhin, 2006).” Some examples thereof follow, and then it states: “However, not all changes in climate and climate variability will be negative, as agriculture and the growing seasons in certain areas (for example, parts of the Ethiopian highlands and parts of southern Africa such as Mozambique), may lengthen under climate change, due to a combination of increased temperature and rainfall changes (Thornton et al., 2006). Mild climate scenarios project further benefits across African croplands for irrigated and, especially, dryland farms.” (Incidentally, the Benhin and Thornton references are also “gray”, but nobody has complained about them. Could there be double standards amongst the IPCC’s critics?)

Chapter 9.4 to us sounds like a balanced discussion of potential risks and benefits, based on the evidence available at the time–hardly the stuff for shrill “Africagate!” cries. If the IPCC can be criticized here, it is that in condensing these results for its Synthesis Report, important nuance and qualification were lost – especially the point that the risk of drought (defined as a 50% downturn in rainfall) “could be exacerbated by climate change”, as chapter 9.4 wrote – rather than being outright caused by climate change.¨

Find the source here.

New discussion paper online

2010-02-17T00:39:00.000-08:00

While I am still analysing the data collected during fieldwork in Tanzania, another output of our project became now available online (check the website of our project partner IFPRI here and here). The literature review discusses micro-level practices for adapting to climate change that are available to small-scale farmers in Africa. Results from the empirical study I will present in April at the conference continents under climate change in Berlin and in May at our workshop in Tanzania.

Maputo

2009-10-16T08:02:00.000-07:00

In mid October I presented some preliminary findings of the household survey at the meeting of our research project in Maputo, Mozambique. We were meeting in Maputo to exchange also with another group of scientists working on the same topic who did household surveys in Mozambique and Mali. For me it was actually pretty early to present. After I had finished data collection in mid September it took a while to get started with data entry. Other work, bronchitis and annoyingly frequent power cuts hindered a fast progress. But in the end I came a up with some first findings for the meeting. I learned a lot in Maputo - about the difficulties that modellers are facing to predict future precipitation, temperature and yields under climate change as well as how other socioeconomists are assessing smallholder farmers’ perceptions and behaviour in regard to climate change. It seems like in many parts of Africa, different climate models are still contradicting each other to such an extend that they won’t be useful to recommend very detailed adaptation measures. Models can be rather applied as a discussion support tool to inform on a national and international level how much additional money has to be spend in order to compensate for climate related losses in yields (IFPRI recently came up with a sum of 7 billion dollars per year to be spend in the improvement of rural road infrastructure, more research in improved crops and to boost irrigation efficiency, here is the link), but modellers can not predict what that money should be used for in detail and in which subnational regions it should be invested.

The venue of our meeting was the agricultural research institute of Mozambique which is located on a nice green hill just outside the city centre. For the first days I only collected few impressions of Maputo on our way to the meeting (here are some pictures of Maputo). However on the last day I had the chance to float in the afternoon through the city. I REALLY LIKED IT. Mozambique has a very different culture compared to Tanzania, very relaxed and almost Caribbean. Portuguese colonists left a great seafood kitchen and dozens of beautiful art deco buildings. The famous train station constructed from the office of Gustave Eiffel is only the most prominent of them. The old trains and their environment give you the feeling that time stood still around the 1960s. Maybe that is a sign of economic deficits but for sure it is nostalgic and somehow beautiful. But not only Portuguese shaped the city. The socialist past and present becomes very apparent if you wander through the Avenidas Marx, Engels, Lenin, Mao, Ho Chi Minh, Kim il Sung and the Praca Robert Mugabe. In front of the museum of the revolution (which is closed due to renovation) there is a square where former Mozambiquian contract-workers in the GDR resemble. They protest because the Mozambiquian government doesn’t hand them over their pensions which apparently where paid to Maputo by the German government. Socialism in Mozambique is apparently nothing more than phrase behind which a corrupted government hides its system of patronage and clientelism. Yet it is impressive to see TV-spots and banners all over the country that make use of socialist symbols, aesthetics and slogans to campaign for the presidential elections that will be held in two weeks time. It is very likely that the ruling Frelimo will win the elections again.

Safeguarding room for manoeuvre for humanity

2009-09-24T04:25:00.000-07:00

It seems science is slowly getting in position for the climate summit in Copenhagen: The authors list of this nature article really reads like a “who is who” of global change research. And they have a clear message: The thresholds of nine earth system processes maintain this world in a comfortable state (climate change; rate of biodiversity loss; interference with the nitrogen and phosphorus cycles; stratospheric ozone depletion; ocean acidification; global freshwater use; change in land use; chemical pollution; and atmospheric aerosol loading). Three of the systems have already transgressed their boundaries…

Dieses war der erste Streich…

2009-09-11T07:21:00.001-07:00

Yesterday we finished data collection in the second region of the survey. It’s a good feeling: now I only have to enter the data, analyze them and write a couple of papers out of them… OK, I admit the word “only” needs to be emphasized ;-)

It will probably take some time to write down all the impressions of the fieldwork. Meanwhile these pictures will give a brief impression.

Best regards,

Till

Meteorologists predict "El niño" rains for Tanzania

2009-08-28T06:53:00.000-07:00

EL NINO, the warming of the Pacific Ocean that creates chaos in global weather patterns, is on its way back, the Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA) confirmed on thursday. The magnitude and the impacts of this phenomenon are not yet known. Many farmers we interviewed suffered badly from the last El niño that happened in Tanzania 1998. In that year heavy rains destroyed many crops and caused severe soil erosion. However some semi-arid regions might also benefit from the rains.

More information; and here another article.

Nane Nane

2009-08-21T06:35:00.000-07:00

Live here sometimes feels like being in a time warp. Incoming and outgoing communication happens always with delay. Next week hopefully I will receive a new issue of “der Spiegel” from an arriving postdoc; it will be by than probably one week old, never mind. The difference between fish and news magazines is the latter don’t stink when time passes by. Outgoing communication is constrained by slow internet. This is why I post these pictures also with two weeks of delay.

The pictures are from Nane Nane agricultural show; an exhibition of cows and tractors that always takes place the first week of August. I went there together with my field assistants. It was a nice opportunity to talk with experts from local politicians to tractor salesmen and scientists. Every district of Tanzania is invited to show its typical crops and products. Also the Sokoine University and the Tanzanian Meteorological Agency have big stands and Climate Change is a real topic. On the same day my field assistant Gilbert showed me the house he is building and we made some GPS measurements he needs, in order to register his plot officially at the village council.

The last two weeks we did fieldwork in two other villages. It is quite an exhausting work. We go to the villages in the morning usually by public transport and come back late. Yesterday the 25 year old Japanese HICE bus we took broke down at every corner. The driver had to refill oil every 15 Km and we nearly lost the exhaust pipe – no wonder with 500kg of tomatoes and 30 people on board. Another day, our bus suddenly changed the route and ended up in the slums of Morogoro to unload its freight – not so comfortable at night time. Last weekend I went to Dar for chill out meeting a SLE-group working here at the moment – really nice!

The Agronauts

2009-08-10T03:08:00.000-07:00

(Click here to find more new pictures)

Since August I started the collection of interviews with household heads in six villages of Morogoro Region. To be precise it is not me conducting the interviews but my two field assistants, Gilbert and Jackson, M.Sc. students from Sokoine University. Usually I am just listening to the Kiswahili conversations (as far as possible), intervening at some points, organizing the data collection and doing the quality control of the (English) questionnaires. The selection of the 300 respondents is made with a random sampling from the village lists. For all of us, the data collection is a tough job. Since the villages I selected purposively are usually not along the easy accessible tarmac roads it involves searching for transport, sleeping in the villages, eating local food and a lot of hiking.

In order to express our thanks for the participation we decided to give each respondent a plastic basin as a small gift. This helps also to simplify our lives: respondents are really enthusiastic about the basin (some people even try to smuggle themselves into the sample) and many come for the interview to the central square of the village. However, others we have to find at their home place and for additional GPS-measurements of plot sizes and the household location we still have to walk a lot.

The quest fort he Golden Fleece

We started our work in a village 40 Km from Morogoro Town where we had stayed already one week for the focus group discussions. Sampling of the households was the first thing to do and by than it also seemed to be the most difficult task. However Athena, the goddess of science was on our side and after two hours of waiting we received the list of all households for two subvillages. We started our work. When after five days there was still no response from the last missing subvillage, we officially changed its name from Mtakuja to Hamtakuja (“you won’t come”) and decided to look ourselves for the remaining list.

The next morning we got up at 6 am for a one hour hike to Hamtakuja. Arriving there the headman was not around. When someone said, “he is on the way to collect the names of the households”, I knew this was as likely as Australia, Canada and Japan fulfilling the reduction goals on CO2 Emissions of the Kyoto Protocol. Hence we started our own village census, asking six older men for the names of all household heads. Within one hour of brainstorming they came up with a list that seemed to be quite complete and we decided to do the sampling.

Finally holding the list of sampled households in our hands we started searching for the selected respondents. This was a tiresome activity. The houses of Mtakuja are scattered in a mountainous area of several square Kilometres – typically each on a different hill. Climbing the steep slopes I was condemning the day when I opted for this time consuming and sweat producing way to collect my data and I was swearing at least to find in the regressions based on these precious data the stone of the wise, the Golden Fleece and an enhanced answer to all questions that goes beyond 42.

Everything is relative

It seems, villagers generally underestimate distances and the acreage of their plots. In order to measure the correct size we asked some farmers to show us their closest agricultural plots. Comparing my GPS measurement with the size recalled by the farmers will help me to calculate a correction factor for the plot size of the whole sample. Of course we ask for the closest plots to simplify our work. But this is still tricky. When we asked a farmer for the distance of her plot she said it was only fifteen minutes to walk – “karibu sana” (very close). Forty-five minutes later we knew that her perception of time apparently differed from ours. However we saw some nice landscape and passed a house with loud drumming and singing – the place of a traditional healer. This old man is apparently quite famous. We were told he receives clients from far away. Many children in the village also wear some kind of traditional amulet for protection. Since the terrible chases for albinos in the western part of the country the whole issue of traditional medicine is currently very heated in Tanzania and people don’t like to talk about it. Fortunately the topic of my PhD is less folkloristic and data collection is kind of straightforward. However what people call their “shambas” (fields) surprised me again and again. Some of these areas I would have never ever considered to be under cultivation but pristine jungle. After we bumped into a snake, while searching our way through this jungle, I declared a Moratorium for the GPS measurements of agricultural fields.

But is everyone a relative?

We finally found ourselves being somehow part of the village: on our hikes people we had worked with waved from far and greeted us enthusiastically, we were invited to a funeral and were offered all sorts of goods from old coins to local beer and minerals. Our hosts and the cook were no longer dada and kaka (sister/brother), but shemegi - sister in law. So finally, resting and watching the sunset in front of our hut in the main subvillage really felt a bit like home. This accommodation was recommended to us by the village executive officer because of its good sanitary facilities. I would say RELATIVELY good – still there were impressive big cockroaches inhabiting the latrine. In respect to health my major precautions were to bring all drinking water and to eat only meat, rice and maize-stew since these dishes were cooked properly and water that is not boiled for 3 minutes seem to be a formidable source for Typhoid Fever and other waterborne diseases. Luckily it seems my precautions are effective (toitoitoi), so we left the village on Friday with a good feeling and 50 completed interviews.

More pictures

2009-07-13T00:24:00.000-07:00

More fieldwork, ridiculous stories and the swarm

2009-07-12T06:56:00.000-07:00

Last week I spend 150 Km north of Morogoro town, my temporary home; in order to make myself familiar with the second research site. Gairo ward is situated on the big central plateau of Tanzania in an altitude of around 1200 meters. The environment is characterized by its semi-arid climate and the vegetation differs significantly from the lowland areas around Morogoro town. The arid earth is of a dusty reddish brown and livestock plays an important role in rural economy. Sunflowers, sweet potatoes and groundnuts are grown between the steep isolated mountains that look like forgotten leftovers of giant surgery.

The ward executive officer recommended me a good place to stay. Practically, the friendly lodge is run by an agricultural extension officer. It offers hot water showers, fertilizers, improved seeds and pesticides and even president Kikwete had once stopped for lunch (ugali, wali, kuku, chinese na bohoga za majani). The village we are working in is situated 6 Km outside of Gairo and since we do not have a car, we had to find some means of transport. After chatting a bit about our study and problems of rainfall, this ward experienced in 2009, luckily the extensionist offered us his old motorbike to hire.

The other morning Gilbert and I had an appointment with an experienced farmer whom we had asked to show us around in the village. So many new impressions. First of all it is really big – it took us five hours to see all subvillages and we walked more than 12 km. Population density is high and there has been a significant shift in landcover from natural forest to farmland in some subvillages within the last decade. In contrast to the villages near Morogoro town, you can see plenty of Zebu-cattle and goats but only little grassland. People have oxcarts and are relatively well equipped with agricultural tools. However, yields were very poor this year and government is preparing to deliver food aid.

Back to Gairo “town” I visited the market abundant in all sorts of clothing from traditional Kangas and school uniforms to more or less tasteful European second hand textiles. I bought me an old jacket that apparently previously had belonged to a British hooligan. Form follows function: Gairo is baridi sana – very cold. Before falling asleep I continue reading Juli Zeh… And suddenly I am in post-war Sarajevo struggling with heat, landmines and annoying American journalists. Great discovery, Hannah.

The next day our group discussions with the villagers were supposed to start. We had found another extensionist, willing to help translating for me from Kiswahili while Gilbert moderates the session. This quickly turns out to be a big luck. The man has worked since 20 years in the area. He has a huge knowledge and that facilitates much to obtain accurate data. But first of all I had to be very patient. Villagers appeared pole pole and I almost didn’t believe this exercise was going to happen. But with some hours delay we started a fruitful series of sessions. It surprised me again, how knowledgeable and how enthusiastic some villagers are to share their perspectives. In the afternoons we carried out some additional exercises that help to understand landcover change using GPS. Over the three days of exercises we dived deeper and deeper in the local context and I left the place with a good feeling: Having understood at least something of the local dynamics.

On Friday waiting for the transport back to Morogoro I watched the live coverage of the G 8 summit from Al Jazeera (finally I also found out that’s really a good programme!). Ridiculous stories from Berlusconi about a poor African boy that loved Europe just SO much and despite of that died of hunger expressing in the last sentence he spoke to his mother his hope for UN food aid to come… Concerning the much needed decisions to prepare the coming Copenhagen Climate Summit the results of L`Aquila appear to be quite disappointing. A lot of hot air instead of “Responsible Leadership for a Sustainable Future”. The Weblog Klima der Gerechtigkeit gives a detailed analysis.

However in TV you can find not only bad news: the Kiswahili version of Sesame Street (Kilimano Sesame) at the Tanzanian channel TBC is really cool! On Saturday I had the chance to visit Mikumi National Park a second time, together with some Colleagues from ZALF in Germany. It is the time of landburning in the park. The authorities do it apparently to prevent poachers from setting their own bushfires and to “led fresh grasses grow”, as our tourguide explained. It was very impressive to see big swarms of grasshoppers escaping from the flames. We also saw huge herds of buffalos drinking from a water pit – SO IMPRESSIVE!!!

Kilosa

2009-07-03T11:37:00.001-07:00

Daytrip to Kilosa town. 200 km mostly non-tarmac road. Half of the trip in a comfortable Toyota Hilux 4WD, half in an antique bushtaxi. My back hurts. On the way I admired the amazing scenery and a big dead snake. A Massai herder, who came by when we stopped, said it was a cobra. Kilosa is the capital of a district we work in. That’s why we introduced ourselves to the friendly district agricultural officers. It seems that some parts of the district had this year serious drought problems. On our way back the ticketboys of two Dalladalla-Bushtaxis were struggling who was supposed to leave Kilosa first. Suddenly one attacked the other with an iron stick. Not so nice.

Spices, Rains and Moonwalks

2009-07-01T07:31:00.000-07:00

Long time since I didn’t update this blog. Many new things happened since my last entry in May.

I presented my research proposal at the university (Picture 1). I had expected harsh criticism since this is what Tanzanian students are apparently used to: In order to be accepted as PhD candidate here, first you have to present own sound empirical data, I was once told. May that be true or not, the feedback to my presentation was rather good. With this positive vibes in mind, I took some days off and went with Eefje to Zanzibar. There we got a good lecture in local botanic during a visit on one of Zanzibars famous spice farms (Picture 2 + 3). It was really impressive how much knowledge our guide had about origins, agronomic aspects and use of plants like Tumeric Powder, Durian, Guayabana, Zanzibar Lipstick plant, Ylang Ylang, Yams, Nutmeg and Henna. Who had thought that the name of Jackfruit stems from Jakarta and that lazy cooks – like me – can use a plant called All Spice Tree (and no, it’s not Glutamate)?

Back to Morogoro I started the pretesting of the first set of tools for data collection (Picture 4). These tools are called Rapid Rural Appraisal (RRA) they have been developed in the 1980s to gain information about the problems and priorities of villagers in developing countries according to their own perceptions. I use the tools to gain first insights in the complex situation of local livelihoods. Many of the exercises are group discussions focusing on a specific topic (yields, problems of agriculture etc.). They are very participatory and it is really impressing how much villagers now, for example about yields, prices and climatic conditions even decades ago. Generally the amount and the distribution of rains is a topic about which villagers can tell for hours. In many parts of Morogoro region there are two rainy seasons, long rains (with a peak around April) and short rains (with a peak around December). But also in the meantime there are certain days of rain that have special names and purposes within the local seasonal calendar. Also changes within the rainfall pattern are discussed by villagers frequently – certainly enough material for many PhDs...

Finally last week I started the real data collection. From Tuesday to Friday I worked in a village that is situated at the slope of the Uluguru Mountains (Picture 4). Soils are quite fertile and people grow Paddy, Tomatoes, Sugarcane, Bananas and other water demanding crops. It was a nice experience to sleep in that village. I felt really remote, since the village is not so easy to reach and there is no infrastructure like electricity or a dispensary. However on Friday morning I realized I was kind of naïve in my romantic idea of being far from everything: through a battery powered radio I heard the news about Michael Jackson probably as early as anybody else. I guess that is what has been called the totalitarian character of Kulturindustrie.

Mikumi National Park

2009-05-24T08:00:00.000-07:00

On Saturday I had the chance to participate in a Safari organized by the international student’s organisation. Our group consisted of 13 students from Europe, SADC-countries and west-Africa. We managed to enter the park around noon - after lengthy negotiations about the entrance fee. Despite the late start we saw an impressing number of wild animals. Mikumi National Park is the fourth largest in the country (3200 km2) and is connected with the famous Selous game reserve. It is only 70km from Morogoro and as you can see, the fauna and flora is similar to the Serengeti. It was a peaceful and touching scene to see all this Impalas, Giraffes, Elephants, Zebras and many more species in a close neighbourhood. Our guide was excellent in explaining the coitus habits of different species though unfortunately he didn’t know much about the evolution of the landscape. Since when exist these savannas and woodlands? How did the landscape evolve over the centuries? Enough questions to be answered in another visit!

Salama from Morogoro!

2009-05-24T07:11:00.000-07:00

It has been nearly two weeks since I arrived in Tanzania and maybe it is time for a short update of this blog. The highlights first: I am staying here at the campus of Sokoine University of Agriculture in an inspiring environment to organize my fieldwork. Additionally, yesterday I had the chance to get to know the interesting neighbourhood of this place – I took part in an excursion to nearby Mikumi National Park.

When I first heard about Sokoine, someone introduced it to me as the Hohenheim of Tanzania. And it’s true: there is much going on here and the standard of the facilities here seem to be quite good. The university offers about two dozens of undergraduate and graduate programmes including Agricultural Economics, Crop + Animal Science, Veterinary Medicine etc. There are several thousand students at four campus sites and more than 200 postdocs. I couldn’t find a written document about the history of the University so far. What I learned from the internet is that the university began in the 1960s as an agricultural college offering diploma in agriculture. It was elevated to a faculty of agriculture in 1969 under the University of Dar es Salaam and again elevated to a fully fledged university in 1984 named after a former Prime Minister of Tanzania. The first president of Tanzania, the socialist Julius Nyerere was the founding chancellor of the university. This gives me the impression that the former faculty served also as a think tank for the often debated Ujamaa socialism of Nyerere. But pole pole - finding out more about Morogoro should not be a big problem within the next few months.

Getting ready for the Grand Tour

2009-04-18T03:02:00.000-07:00

Hi all!

A few weeks from now I will start the fieldwork in Tanzania for my PhD project. The topic is the adaptation of smallholder farmers to the impacts of climate change. Hopefully it will be more than an instructive "Grand Tour" and I will come up with good and useful results. But that is still a long way from now and until than I would like to share some impressions, thoughts and experiences to my friends, family and maybe others interested in adaptation research. This is why I decided to start a blog. So, I am looking forward to hear, how you find this idea and - of course - to arrive in Tanzania!

Tutaonana - see you - auf Wiedersehen!